Is Rwanda Going to Annex Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
Marc Vandepitte looks at dangerous developments in a war that has killed millions, but attracts little attention in the West
On January 27, 2025, the M23 rebel group, backed by Rwanda, captured the city of Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Goma has a population of 1.5 million and is surrounded by hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
This is yet another flare-up in a forgotten war that has claimed the lives of no less than six million people since 1996. We are therefore talking about the bloodiest conflict of recent decades.
Forgotten War
M23 is a rebel army claiming to fight for the rights of the Congolese Tutsi community, which often feels marginalised and threatened in the region.
The ethnic tensions in the region have deep roots, going back to the Rwandan genocide in 1994. After the genocide, Hutu militias ([allegedly] responsible for the genocide) crossed the border into Congo, leading to ongoing conflicts between Tutsis and Hutus in the area.
However, economic motives play a particularly significant role in M23’s zeal. Eastern Congo is enormously rich in resources such as gold, tin, and coltan.
The rebel army uses these resources as a source of income by controlling mines, taxing trade, and illegally exporting minerals to neighbouring countries like Rwanda. This generates significant monthly financial resources for them.
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Map: Don-kun, UweDedering, Wikimedia Commons
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Rwanda’s role should not be underestimated in this. M23 has close ties to the US supported Rwandan Kagame government, which, according to UN reports, supports the group to maintain influence and gain access to Congo’s valuable resources.
Rwanda uses the movement as a means of strategic control over the area. According to the UN, Rwanda has sent thousands of troops across the border, including anti-aircraft missiles, snipers, armoured vehicles, and special forces.
The ease with which M23 operates is linked to the weakness of the Congolese government. The east of the country has been plagued for years by poor governance, corruption, and limited presence of the central government. In this vacuum, M23 thrives.
Panic
The capture of the city by M23 has caused massive panic among residents. Goma is a medical hub for the region. As a result of the hostilities, medical care has almost entirely ground to a halt, threatening a humanitarian disaster.
Moreover, concern about a possible regional war is growing. The Congolese president considers the capture of Goma a “declaration of war.” And that is not an exaggeration.
The M23 rebel group is part of the Congo River Alliance, a coalition of rebel groups and political parties led by Corneille Nangaa. This alliance aims to overthrow the Congolese government. The fall of Goma may be, just like the fall of Aleppo in Syria, the beginning of a takeover of the entire country.
Whatever the case, during an emergency meeting of the UN security council on Sunday, January 26, secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for the immediate withdrawal of the rebels and emphasised the need for international co-operation to de-escalate the conflict.
Western Interests
A recent UN report states that Rwanda aims to occupy the area around Goma for the “long term,” a euphemism for annexation. In light of this report, alarm bells should be ringing in Western capitals. But that is not the case.
While there have been condemnations, no sanctions have been imposed or announced.
That is precisely what should happen. The West could easily rein in Rwanda and M23. The Rwandan government is heavily dependent on foreign aid. At least a third of its government budget comes from donor aid, and the country also relies on a positive reputation to attract tourists and investors.
In 2012, M23 already occupied Goma once, but after Western pressure, the rebel army withdrew after 10 days. Whether this will happen again now is highly questionable, given the significant stakes involved.
First and foremost, there is the factor of coltan. Coltan is an essential resource for smartphones, laptops, aerospace, and GPS systems. Between 60 and 80 per cent of the world’s coltan reserves are located in eastern Congo.
In 2023, Rwanda exported 2,070 tons of coltan, making it the largest exporter worldwide. Key buyers include China, the United States, and several European countries. China has a technological edge in refining coltan and has also built up significant reserves.
The West does not want to jeopardise the import of this indispensable mineral and therefore will not want to antagonise Rwandan President Paul Kagame too much.
For Europe, there is an additional reason, as Kagame is useful for its interests on the African continent. For instance, the European Union gave €40 million to the Rwandan army for a mission in Mozambique. France is pushing for Rwandan troops to remain in northern Mozambique to protect TotalEnergies’ offshore gas facilities from Islamic rebels.
Moreover, the EU and its member states are investing more than $900 million in Rwanda through the Global Gateway programme.
Under the previous Conservative government, the United Kingdom planned to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda to deter illegal migration.
And you shouldn’t expect too much from the US either. Elon Musk has important contracts for his company Starlink in this small African country.
More generally, Rwanda functions for the US as a counterweight to the growing Chinese and Russian influence in Africa, especially because the country seems to prefer cooperation with Western countries.
At a time when China and Russia are expanding their influence in Africa, Washington is leveraging its partnership with Kigali to strengthen the US presence in the region.
In a sense, Rwanda plays in Africa the role that Israel plays in the Middle East. It is therefore highly uncertain whether the West will use its influence to call Rwanda and M23 to order as it did in 2012.
As Jason Stearns wrote in the Financial Times:
“We seem to be living in a world where migration, business investments and other national concerns are more important than humanitarianism, and where apathy trumps solidarity. (…) Little wonder that Russia’s popularity is on the rise with Congolese.”
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